Per Twitter feeds, Craig Lewis, a pro cyclist for Team Columbia HTC, came home from the Tour of Ireland to Greenville, SC, with a case of H1N1. He was in the hospital last night. Johan Bruyneel, Team Manager for another cycling team, also went to the hospital in Madrid (Spain) last night, suffering from a very high fever.
So, you've got 400-ish cyclists and team members at the Tour of Ireland. They have now dispersed to their home countries. Two of them (that we know of) appear to have the flu. How many cases can we expect in Ireland next week? And what do we do about the Tour of Spain (Vuelta a Espana), which is due to start on Saturday? (Craig Lewis was supposed to ride in it, but has withdrawn.) There were huge numbers of spectators over the three days of the race. Many are still in Ireland, attending Lance Armstrong's Livestrong Cancer Summit, which ends today.
Okay, this is speculation on my part, starting from two datapoints, but I don't think you could get a much more interesting model than what we have here: Virus shows up at a major international sporting event, attended by thousands of people who then go back home.
Next week could be *really* interesting in a epidemiological way. It would be just as interesting if the virus *doesn't* spread as if it does.
The fact that this flu strikes people in the prime of their life scares me.
I've read accounts from 1918. This may not be as devastating but, for a strain of flu to triple the death rate we normally expect from the disease, it may devastate us yet.
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(no subject)
Date: 2009-08-26 12:16 am (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2009-08-26 12:29 am (UTC)So, you've got 400-ish cyclists and team members at the Tour of Ireland. They have now dispersed to their home countries. Two of them (that we know of) appear to have the flu. How many cases can we expect in Ireland next week? And what do we do about the Tour of Spain (Vuelta a Espana), which is due to start on Saturday? (Craig Lewis was supposed to ride in it, but has withdrawn.) There were huge numbers of spectators over the three days of the race. Many are still in Ireland, attending Lance Armstrong's Livestrong Cancer Summit, which ends today.
Okay, this is speculation on my part, starting from two datapoints, but I don't think you could get a much more interesting model than what we have here: Virus shows up at a major international sporting event, attended by thousands of people who then go back home.
Next week could be *really* interesting in a epidemiological way. It would be just as interesting if the virus *doesn't* spread as if it does.
(no subject)
Date: 2009-08-26 10:06 am (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2009-08-26 02:28 pm (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2009-08-27 08:32 am (UTC)I know the shot is free most places, and this flu sux, but still, I dunno...what do you think?
(no subject)
Date: 2009-08-27 10:17 am (UTC)I've read accounts from 1918. This may not be as devastating but, for a strain of flu to triple the death rate we normally expect from the disease, it may devastate us yet.